Tonight I had a great IM chat about the future of newspapers and reporting with a good friend of mine (and Fulbright Scholar) named Denver Nicks. I posted the full conversation, and one of the highlights is below (in italics):
Tyler Fields
i think we will see that traditional news coverage will become more
like tech news today and be dominated in the future less by "CNN, ABC,
etc" and more by "Joe Smith", "Julie Jones," etc.
Denver Nicks
personal brands?
Tyler Fields
yes
Denver Nicks
that is interesting
Tyler Fields
imagine this. if john king of cnn decided to create his own website,
bought some handheld sony HD cameras, hired a camera guy, and traveled
around just reporting as "john king", he could do that. today. and do very
very well financially.
on opposite ends of a spectrum, the old media companies and the blogosphere will move toward a center equilibrium point where there are many more "companies/collectives" (like TechCrunch, Daily Beast, etc) but each will have fewer members. old media will fragment. new media will congeal.
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[BEGINNING OF CONVERSATION]
Denver Nicks
i just sort of had a realization
or hit a tipping point with a long standing realization
that media is changing, the internet is where its at, and it isn't a scary threat, but a really, really exciting frontier of opportunities
Tyler Fields
why?
Denver Nicks
maybe scared is a bad way to put it
the problem as i see it has to do with intellectual property rights
duplicating intellectual property (writing) on the web is cheap and easy
this is the problem, essentially, with journalism
that and the fact that people expect to access news on the internet for free, and ads aren't cutting it
Tyler Fields
ah
Denver Nicks
but we will sort it out
with better advertising
and intellectual property rights protection, and who knows what else
Tyler Fields
the changes in selling news come down to geography. just like the changes in selling books was about geography. there can be *only* one bookstore online because, at the end of the day, people are looking for certainty. why would you ever go to barnes and noble.com to buy a book if you are certain that amazon will have it (if it exists) for the best price.
the contractions are occurring because a specific geographic area no longer needs its own large newspaper to supply it with news, and national/global coverage specifically. so the Dallas Morning News will continue to exist, but it will be drastically smaller and most of its original reporting will be purely hyperlocal/north texas
Denver Nicks
you are spot on, but only about a small part of the problem
the internet itself lowers revenue for news people
because people expect the content for free
Tyler Fields
when digital paper goes mainstream, costs will adjust, because papers will stop printing
Denver Nicks
two probems
this assumes that people will pay a subscription fee to get news on digital paper (possible, for sure...likely? not so sure)
Tyler Fields
i didn't say that
most will still expect it for free, but papers won't have to support a printing business anymore
Denver Nicks
very well then, onto the second problem, the cost of producing news is not, primarily (this is conjecture...i have no evidence whatsoever to back this up) is not primarily the paper and printing process
Tyler Fields
ha!
i might disagree. fixed costs and overhead are significant.
Denver Nicks
i think the big cost is paying people to dig up news, understand it, place it in a context, write about it, take pictures of it, edit it, make it look nice, sell advertising, clean the toilets in the bldg, security for the building, etc. (Tulsa World just fired their entire security staff and hired on some contract boys)
Tyler Fields
there you go.
there will be more working from home. there will be more contract/freelance writing. and now writers will be hired on a darwinian basis, based on who draws the eyeballs. that wasn't possible before the web.
Denver Nicks
will this produce higher quality journalism though?
will the most talented people go into a business where they will be judged day to day like competing species?
people want job security, a little time off, health care
i don't know, i'm not disagreeing with you
i'm just saying
i don't like the idea of raising my family as a freelancer
Tyler Fields
good question; there will be fewer writers, the audience for the remaining will grow larger.
Denver Nicks
this is bad though
fewer writers means less news
Tyler Fields
correction: there will be fewer writers writing about the same thing
Denver Nicks
(which is also a loss for the public i think)
Tyler Fields
correction again: there will be fewer writers *getting paid* to write about the same thing
WAIT. forget everything. instead, there will be more "huffington posts"
because the huffington post just got funded :)
Denver Nicks
exactly
and the huffington post doesn't produce any original news
not opinion pieces, not viral videos, not actual news
Tyler Fields
there will be just as many opinions, just as many writers, just as high quality news, but the companies will be smaller, distributed, and web based
Denver Nicks
how can there be just as many writers with smaller companies?
Tyler Fields
on opposite ends of a spectrum, the old media companies and the blogosphere will move toward a center equilibrium point where there are many more "companies/collectives" but each will have fewer members. old media will fragment. new media will congeal.
Denver Nicks
aha
i see what you're getting at
i like this future
so long as the new media adhere to a journalistic ethos
Tyler Fields
new media will congeal for same reason all car dealerships locate on the same street in a town. sales for everyone increases. this happens with competing restaurants as well. hard rock cafe always sets up across the street from planet hollywood;
Denver Nicks
this still doesn't solve the problem of revenue though
does it?
(assuming my entirely baseless assumption about costs is true)
Tyler Fields
techcrunch, huffington post, daily beast are the pioneers
the three aforementioned ventures are raking it in (i think?)
web businesses are pretty friggen cheap to operate
the journalistic ethos will remain as long as there is a demand for it
Denver Nicks
i still think you are basing your model on a fundamental misunderstanding
huffpost, techcrunch, dailybeast, etc
these are two things
news aggregators and web magazines
basically
they do produce some original content
Tyler Fields
techcrunch is totally original
Denver Nicks
but they do not do the day to day work of making the news
someone has to walk over to the court house and look through the dusty old file to learn that so and so is actually a multiple offender or whatever
Tyler Fields
Wash Post syndicates techcrunch on their homepage. techcruch does create the tech news today i would argue
Denver Nicks
or trek down to city hall and actually interview the mayor, or develop a relationship with the city councilor who will give her the inside scoop
Tyler Fields
techcrunch does all of what you say though, in its domain. and some of these tasks will increasingly be crowdsourced (many already are) by people like you and me who sit in front of computers most of the day. and as the web gets older and google takes over the world, "going down to the courthouse to pull documents" will probably be accomplished via web as well.
Denver Nicks
i mean, it already is sort of
but there is a difference btw interviewing someone in person and over the phone
Tyler Fields
i wasn't really referring to those kinds of things. dave arrington (techcrunch) has always done personal interviews
Tyler Fields
and for independents like robert scoble (also in high tech), all they do is site visits and personal interviews.
Tyler Fields
i think we will see that traditional news coverage will become more like tech news today and be dominated in the future less by "CNN, ABC, etc" and more by "Joe Smith", "Julie Jones," etc.
Denver Nicks
personal brands?
Tyler Fields
yes
Denver Nicks
that is interesting
i just hope there is enough money to be made that enough people can be employed doing it to keep up the quality
or increase it
just remember man, there is a lot more crap going on than you hear about
someone picks and chooses what to report
and that becomes the news
and fewer people reporting doesn't mean less crap happening
and fewer good people will be reporting if they can't get paid for it
Tyler Fields
imagine this. if john king of cnn decided to create his own website, bought some handheld sony HD cameras, hired a camera guy, and traveled around just reporting as "john king", he could do that. today. and do very very well financially.
and he is quality. there is an audience for that
and then john king can pick and choose what he wants to report on. and can report on so much more. because "cnn" isn't on the line.
and as the # of independent john kings (or "john king & co.") increases, the support services they need (that used to only be supplied by huge organizations) will develop as distinct businesses themselves.
Found this excellent article from earlier this year. It is basically a long-form synopsis of our discussion, only more sophisticated, and in prettier language.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/03/31/080331fa_fact_alterman
Posted by: Denver | December 10, 2008 at 05:03 PM